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The inThought team, initiated in January 2009, brings
together an active primary research team with the extensive
data and research capabilities of Wolters Kluwer Pharma Solutions. The
mission of the inThought team is to deliver forward-looking
analyses to healthcare professionals as well as to institutional
investors. To do this, the team generates weekly alert research
reports and performs custom analysis as needed by clients.
Analyses
include a proprietary methodology for quantifying probability
of FDA approval as well as a forecasting revenue methodology
for both approved and developmental drugs and medical devices.
Both the probability of approval models and revenue models
are being integrated into the Wolters Kluwer Adis
R&D Insight™ (RDI) product.
Research Alert
July 22, 2009
Obesity Revenue Projections.
- inThought models the
revenue potential of eight obesity drugs in clinical development –
Orexigen’s Contrave and Empatic, Arena’s lorcaserin, Vivus’s
Qnexa, Novo Nordisk’s liraglutide, Neurosearch’s tesofensine,
Alizyme’s Cetilistat, and Amylin’s pramlintide/leptin combination.
- None of the agents in late stage clinical development
is likely provide an optimal anti-obesity solution in
terms of therapeutic effect magnitude, long-term safety,
and reimbursement.
- The highest revenue generator in our model is
Arena’s lorcaserin, with peak worldwide sales modeled
at $850 million if approved.
- In spite of our modest revenue projections, the potential
market for obesity agents is huge. In this report, we
discuss the factors that could lead to the “breakout” success
of each of the obesity agents. For example, lorcaserin
could be a multi-billion dollar a year drug if it is safe
and effective in combination with phentermine.
- The challenges
that each agent will face, especially CNS and cardiovascalar
adversities, as well as marginal weight loss profiles,
are also discussed.
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